欧元区国家不同生育水平条件下公共医疗支出对公共债务影响实证分析

【发布时间】 2017-06-29

 

欧元区国家不同生育水平条件下公共医疗支出对公共债务影响实证分析*

——基于面板门槛模型的检验

王浩名1祝灵敏2

1.内蒙古财经大学,经济学院,呼和浩特,010070

2.内蒙古财经大学,经济学院,呼和浩特,010070

摘要:本文基于欧元区国家1995年至2012年的面板数据,采用面板门槛模型方法对公共医疗支出与公共债务之间的非线性关系进行了实证检验。实证结果表明不同的生育水平阶段,造成了公共医疗支出对公共债务的不同影响,具有明显的区间效应。在较低的生育水平阶段,公共医疗支出的增加导致了公共债务的快速提高。在适度的生育水平阶段,公共医疗支出的增加使得公共债务提高比较温和。较高的生育水平阶段,公共医疗支出水平的增加并不会带来公共债务的提高。

关键词:生育水平;公共医疗支出;公共债务;面板门槛模型

An Empirical Analysis of Public Health Expenditure on Public Debt from the European Monetary Union Countries’ the Fertility Level—Based on Panel Threshold Model Test

Wang Haoming1; Zhu Lingmin2

(1.Inner Mongolia Finance and Economic University, Economic Colleague, Hohhot, 010070, China; 2.Inner Mongolia Finance and Economic University, Economic Colleague, Hohhot, 010070, China)

Abstract: This paper analyzes the nonlinear relation of public health expenditure and public debt, using 1995 to 2012 date of European Monetary Union Countries and Panel Threshold Model. The empirical result show that the impact of public health expenditure on public debt has different results in different of fertility levels stage. It is a significant interval effect. When the fertility level is lower, increase in public health expenditure led to a rapid increase in public debt. When the fertility level is moderate, because of increasing public health expenditure public debt increases slowly. When the fertility level is higher, increase in public health expenditure will not rise public debt.

Key Word: the fertility level; public health expenditure; public debt; Panel Threshold Model

 



*国家社会科学基金项目:中国全面“二孩”生育政策下消费结构变化预测与“供给侧”调整研究(项目编号:16BJL081)阶段成果。

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